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Prospect- 2013 MLB Draft: NL Central

2013 MLB Draft: National League Central Summary and Reviewhttp://0rz.tw/rhRxXChicago Cubs1-2) Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego2-41) Rob Zastryzny, LHP, Missouri3-75) Jacob Hannemann, OF, BYU4-108) Tyler Skulina, RHP, Kent State5-138) Trey Masek, RHP, Texas TechOthers of note: 6) Scott Frazier, RHP, Pepperdine; 7) David Garner, RHP,Michigan State; 8)Sam Wilson, LHP, Lamar CC; 10) Zack Godley, RHP; Tennessee;15) Michael Wagner, RHP, San Diego; 17) Kelvin Freeman, 1B, North CarolinaA&T; 37) Jeremy Martinez, C, California HSCOMMENT: Kris Bryant can make this a successful draft all by himself if hecomes close to living up to his potential as a power masher. 3rd rounderHannemann has a good tool set but is behind the curve developmentally due toa two-year Mormon mission. Pitching was the main theme otherwise, with amixture of polished finesse guys like RZY and Garner with harder-throwerslike Skulina and Masek. (NOTE: A reader points out that Garner has beenclocked as high as 95 and Z as high as 94, so the original comment may not befair) Some of these arms will need development but there's good potential inthe group. Freeman is limited to first base but performed well in college andis worth tracking as an interesting org type. Martinez was expected to go inthe third round but his bonus demands drove him down once he didn't go earlyenough.Cincinnati Reds1-27) Phillip Ervin, OF, Samford1S-38) Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Cal State Fullerton2-67) Kevin Franklin, 3B, Gahr HS, Cerritos, CA3-104) Mark Armstrong, RHP, Clarence HS, NY4-135) Ben Lively, RHP, Central Florida5-165) Cory Thompson, SS, Maudlin HS, SCOthers of interest: 8) Scott Brattvet, RHP, Cal State Bakersfield; 9) ChadJones, LHP, No School (Louisiana); 14) Willie Abreu, OF, Florida HS; 22)Layne Somsen, RHP, South Dakota State; 24) Brett Morales, RHP, Florida HS;27) Zack Collins, C, Florida HSCOMMENT: I like Ervin a lot as an across-the-board talent who does a lot ofthings well. Lorenzen is a great athlete and was mostly an outfielder incollege, but his bat is problematic and he has a better shot at making themajors with his arm. Franklin is a power hitter with a questionable futureposition. Armstrong is a classic cold-weather prep pitcher with upside whowill need patient development. Ben Lively doesn't burn radar but throws fourpitches for quality strikes and projects as an inning-eater type. Pitchingwas the main focus outside of Ervin and Franklin. Finding some way to signMorales and Collins would have been possible under the old draft rules, butthey're certain to attend college under the new bonus pool set-up.Milwaukee Brewers2-54) Devin Williams, RHP, Hazelwood West HS, Hazelwood, MO2S-72) Tucker Neuhaus, SS, Wharton HS, Tampa, FL3-90) Barrett Astin, RHP, Arkansas4-122) Taylor Williams, RHP, Kent State5-152) Josh Uhen, RHP, Wisconsin-MilwaukeeOthers of note: 6) Garrett Cooper, 1B, Auburn; 7) Omar Garcia, OF, Miami DadeJC; 8) Brandon Diaz, OF, Florida HS; 11) Andy Hillis, RHP, Lee University;21) Tristan Archer, RHP, Tennessee TechCOMMENT: The Brewers still brought in some top talent early despite lacking afirst round pick, picking up super-projectable Devin Williams. Neuhaus mighthave been a first-rounder if he hadn't been injured all spring, so he's agood find in that spot as well. Astin, Williams, and Uhen all project asrelief pitchers, although good ones if everything works out. Hillis can hit98-99 MPH but fell to the 11th round due to command and lack of secondarypitches. The rest of the class looks like organization guys, although thereare always some Mike Fiers-ish possibilities in that category, includingstrike-throwing Tristan Archer. Garcia and Diaz are very fast.Pittsburgh Pirates1-9) Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS, Loganville, GA1-14) Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS, Covington, WA2-51) Blake Taylor, LHP, Dana Hills HS, Dana Point, CA3-87) JaCoby Jones, 2B, Louisiana State4-119) Cody Dickson, LHP, Sam Houston State5-149) Trae Arbet, SS, Great Oak HS, Temecula, CAOthers of interest: 7) Buddy Borden, RHP, UNLV; 8) Neil Kozikowski, RHP,Connecticut HS; 14) Nick Buckner, OF, Texas HS; 15) Max Rossiter, C, ArizonaState; 16) Billy Roth, RHP, California HS.COMMENT: You start off strong up the middle here with excellent high schoolpicks Meadows and McGuire. Taylor is a project but could become a numberthree starter in time, and the Pirates like molding young prep arms. Joneshas first round tools but didn't hit very well in college: is he fixable? Idon't know. Dickson throws in the 90s and might have gone higher if he'dpitched for a more prominent program; he's a fine choice in the fourth round.It is mostly organization college guys after the middle rounds, butKozikowski, Buckner, and Roth are all promising if they are signable.Overall, if you told the Pirates nine months ago that they would have bothMeadows and McGuire, I think they would have been thrilled.St. Louis Cardinals1-19) Marco Gonzales. LHP, Gonzaga1-28) Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Joseph Regional HS, Montvale, NJ2-57) Oscar Mercado, SS, Gaither HS, Tampa, FL3-93) Mike Mayers, RHP, Mississippi4-125) Mason Katz, INF, Louisiana State5-155) Ian McKinney, LHP, Boone HS, Orlando, FLOthers of interest: 7) Chris Rivera, SS, California HS; 9) Nick Petree, RHP,Missouri State; 10) Malik Collymore, SS, Canada HSCOMMENT: The Cardinals generally identify a good mix of upside and polishearly in drafts, then supplement with organization players in later rounds. ..the thing is, the "organization players" they pick have a knack of exceedingexpectations and becoming better than other teams expect. Gonzales will getto the majors very quickly due to his polish. Kaminsky will take longer butmaybe not that much longer; he is very advanced for a cold-weather pitcher.Mercado and Rivera are prep infielders who didn't live up to offensiveexpectations this spring but are still intriguing investments due to the lackof useful middle infielders in the '12 class. Katz is interesting: he has agreat track record, but scouts worry about his defense and wonder if the batwill hold up at the highest levels. They said the same things about MattCarpenter and Allen Craig, so cutting the Cardinals some slack with guys likethat seem wise to me. Petree doesn't burn radar but has superb pitchinginstincts.-- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD."--
  • 發問日期:2021-05-17 10:51:37

Prospect- 2013 MLB Draft: NL West

2013 MLB Draft: National League West Summary and Reviewhttp://0rz.tw/QYODsArizona Diamondbacks:1-15) Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada1-36) Aaron Blair, RHP, Marshall2-52) Justin Williams, OF, Terrebonne HS, Houma, LA3-88) Daniel Palka, 1B, Georiga TechOther Picks of Interest: 4) Matt McPhearson, OF, Maryland HS; 7) DanielGibson, LHP, Florida; 10) Jimmie Sherfy, RHP, OregonCOMMENT: Shipley represents great value at 15th overall, given that he couldhave gone as high as fifth. Blair, another potential first-round talent,gives Arizona another college arm that should advance quickly. Williams is adifferent sort, a raw hitter with excellent power potential but considerablerisk. Palka is another power bat, though he strikes out a lot and lackspolish in other phases. McPhearson has outstanding speed and a chance to be avery good hitter, but might present a signability problem in the fourthround. College arms Gibson and Sherfy could move quickly. Overall I think theDiamondbacks did well: it is a diverse group with a mixture of upside andsafety.Colorado Rockies1-3) Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma2-42) Ryan McMahon, 3B, Mater Dei HS, Santa Ana, CA2S-70) Alex Balog, RHP, San Francisco3) Sam Moll, LHP, MemphisOther picks of interest: 4) Jordan Patterson, OF, South Alabama; 6) DomNunez, C, California HS; 8) Terry McClure, OF, Georgia HSCOMMENT: Generally college oriented but solid enough. Gray is a potentialnumber one starter with a chance for his stuff to work well in Colorado.McMahon is just a solid all-around hitter who needs to polish his glove buthas enough athleticism to do so. Balog was a first round candidate so gettinghim in the comp balance round is a good value. Moll and Patterson are solidcollege players who could be useful role guys in the majors, while Nunez andMcClure are high school upside picks who could turn out very well, if theyare signable in those rounds. College picks filled out the balance of thedraft, with live-armed LHP Billy Waltrip (12th round, Oklahoma) having morepotential than most. RHP Alec Hansen (25th round) and RHP Kyle Serrano (29thround) will be impossible to sign under the current draft rules and areheading to college, but both could be first-rounders in three years.Los Angeles Dodgersv1-18) Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville2-56) Tom Windle, LHP, Minnesota3-92) Brandon Dixon, 3B, Arizona4-124) Cody Bellinger, 1B, Hamilton HS, Chandler, ArizonaOther picks of interest: 5) J.D. Underwood, RHP; Palm Beach State CC; 6)Jacob Rhame, RHP; Grayson County CC.COMMENT: Curiously conservative for a Dodgers draft, so perhaps all the moneyspent on the free agent and international market has pulled things back a bitfinancially. That's not to say there isn't talent here. Anderson is a bighard-throwing horse in the Dodgers mold, Windle is a potential fifth starteror relief option who could advance quickly. Dixon looks like a solid roleplayer but hard to profile as a regular due to lack of power. Communitycollege pitchers Underwood and Rhame should be signable in these spots; Rhamehas the stronger arm, Underwood the greater pitchability. The Dodgers likingfor bloodlines shows up in the 12th round with the selection of Adam Law (sonof Vance, grandson of Vernon) out of BYU. He's a future utilityman.San Diego Padres1-13) Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State2-50) Dustin Pederson, SS, Gilbert HS, Arizona2S-69) Jordan Paroubeck, OF, Serra HS, San Mateo, CA3-86) Bryan Verbitsky, RHP, Hofstra4-118) Mason Smith, OF, Rocky Mountain HS, Meridian, IdahoOther picks of interest: 6) Trevor Gott, RHP, Kentucky; 10) Justin Livengood,RHP, UNC WilmingtonCOMMENT: I love what the Padres did here: they picked up three very strongbats at the top of the draft, with Renfroe, Pederson, and Paroubeck allhaving the potential to be significant major league power hitters. MasonSmith has a boatload of tools as well. Verbitstky might be a bit of a stretchat 3, but the upside of the others should balance that. I doubt there is anychance to sign Connor Jones in the 21st round or Chris Okey at 31 under thecurrent draft rules. A sleeper to watch is 24th round pick Marcus Davis, apower-hitting outfielder from Florida State.San Francisco Giants1-25) Christian Arroyo, SS, Hernando HS, Brooksville, Florida2-64) Ryder Jones, 3B, Watauga HS, Boone, North Carolina3-101) Chase Johnson, RHP, Cal Poly4-132) Brian Ragira, 1B, StanfordOther picks of interest: 5) Dan Slania, RHP, Notre Dame; 6) Nick Vander Tuig,RHP, UCLA; 8) Tyler Horan, OF, Virginia Tech; 9) D.J. Snelten, LHP, MinnesotaCOMMENT: The Giants are well-known for having a draft board that doesn't lookmuch like everyone else's. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but on paperthis group has some things to prove. Arroyo has a very solid bat but mostpeople don't think he can remain in the middle infield; the Giants disagree.Jones has so-so tools but a good performance record that put him in the 5-8round range for most. Johnson has the power sinker that the Giants like inthe bullpen; Slania could also move quickly in a relief role; Vander Tuig andSnelten could be good complementary arms. Ragira never lived up toexpectations at Stanford, but Horan exceeded them at V-Tech. They should getsome useful role players out of this, but it is hard to see stars unlessArroyo and Jones really blossom.-- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD."--
  • 發問日期:2021-05-17 10:51:37

Prospect- Success rates (based on BB & K rate)

http://0rz.tw/bR5aL (R)http://0rz.tw/Aub5M (SS)http://0rz.tw/xjt8T (A)目前出到A--參考樣本取在1990 ~ 2007、top 100 prospects,至少75 PA。高、平均與低的標準:BB+/SO+在 85-115 為average;但是如果某球員的BB+在83,則要參考低 & 平均(取上下多5,78-88) BB% SO%Low 7.7% 15.4%High 10.5% 20.8%生涯1500PA達到0.01 Batting runs 列為"Productive" ;不足1500PA與Batting runs不足0.01者列為"Bust"(Edgar Renteria也會被列為Bust...)以下將分成: ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ║ ∩____∩ ║ ║ ∩____∩ ║ ║ ∩____∩ ║ ║ | ︵ ︵ | ║ ║ | ︵ ︵ | ║ ║ | ︵ ︵ | ║ ║ ∕_▄︵▄_﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ ∕-⊙-⊙-﹨ ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ ﹨ |︿| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |皿| ∕ ║ ╚═低保送低三振═╝ ╚═低保送中三振═╝ ╚═低保送高三振═╝ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ║ ∩____∩ ║ ║ ∩____∩ ║ ║? ∩____∩ ║ ║ | ︿ ︿ | ║ ║ | ︵ ︵ | ║ ║ |u︵ ︵ | ?║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(○)(○)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ ﹨ |□| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪|υ∕ ║ ╚═中保送低三振═╝ ╚═中保送中三振═╝ ╚═中保送高三振═╝ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ║ ∩____∩ ║ ║ ∩____∩ ║ ║ ◢∩____∩◣ ║ ║ | ︵ ︵ | ║ ║ | ︵ ︵ | ║ ║ ◥◣︵ ︵◢◤ ║ ║ ∕(◎)(◎)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |▽| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ╚═高保送低三振═╝ ╚═高保送中三振═╝ ╚═高保送高三振═╝--菜鳥聯盟http://cdn1.sbnation.com/assets/3273693/ProspectPercentRookie.jpg 分類http://cdn2.sbnation.com/assets/3273709/ProspectOverallRookie.jpg overallConclusionPlayers who are 21 or older in rookie ball are behind in their development.Historically, the most productive hitters to come out of this level are atthe extremes in their approach – either they walk and strike out a lot or don’t do much of either. Oddly enough, the players who are just average at those things have not gone on to have much success in the major leagues.As with any statistical analysis of minor league players, everything must beviewed in context and compared with scouting reports. However, this shouldcreate a basis for conversation on some players. Which other players inRookie ball caught your eye this year? BB+ SO+ Prod% Avg% Bust%Travis Demeritte 174 141 43% 0 % 57%J.P. Crawford 157 75 10% 10% 80%Clint Frazier 91 157 0% 25% 75% The biggest red flagAustin Meadows 134 112 34% 6% 60% (三振率31%)Reese McGuire 80 46 31% 19% 50%Hunter Dozier 143 63 0% 20% 80%Oscar Mercado 100 107 0% 11% 89%Daniel Palka 127 94 0% 0% 100%--短期Ahttp://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3314863/ProspectPercentShortA.jpg 分類http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3314871/ProspectOverallShortA.jpg overallConclusionShort-season A is very similar to the Rookie levels in that extremeapproaches lend themselves to more productive future hitters. However, thehitters tend to be slightly older in this level, probably due to teamssending college draft picks there immediately after signing. Which otherplayers in Short-season A ball caught your eye this year? BB+ SO+ Prod% Avg% Bust%Brian Ragira 145 122 40% 20% 40%Brandon Thomas 127 155 40% 20% 40%Kris Bryant 123 107 17% 0% 83%Tzu-Wei Lin 127 109 3% 0% 67%Gavin Cecchini 78 68 25% 25% 50%Matthew Oberste 43 99 0% 0% 100%--1Ahttp://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3350503/ProspectPercentA.jpg 統計http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3350511/ProspectOverallA.jpg OverallConclusionSingle-A is the place where prospects start honing their approach. Those whoare able to do so get the call up to better and more advanced leagues, whilethose who don’t start to flame out quickly. Extreme approaches are no longerrewarded but instead a good mix of walking more than striking out.Which other players in single-A caught your eye this year? BB+ SO+ Prod% Avg% Bust%Jeimer Candelario 135 75 42% 8% 50%Jesse Winker 147 76 42% 8% 50%Albert Almora 71 54 35% 12% 53%Byron Buxton 156 85 34% 10% 56%Carlos Correa 127 78 33% 0% 67%Mookie Betts 194 58 27% 18% 55%Jorge Alfaro 76 129 17% 17% 67% RangersPatrick Kivlehan 78 83 17% 10% 73%Gregory Bird 212 113 15% 8% 77%Barrett Barnes 94 114 14% 7% 79%Lewis Brinson 109 186 11% 11% 78% RangersRoman Quinn 103 105 9% 9% 82%Nick Williams 42 133 0% 15% 85% RangersJoey Gallo 122 181 0% 0% 100% RangersVictor Roache 101 130 0% 0% 100%Brandon Dixon 55 140 0% 0% 100%Nomar Mazara 99 127 0% 0% 100% Rangers-- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD."--
  • 發問日期:2021-05-17 10:51:36

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